Editor’s note: Malik Ayub Sumbal, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is an award-winning journalist, geopolitical analyst and author of the book Tovuz to Karabakh, A Comprehensive Analysis of War in South-Caucasus. The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.
China and Japan, two neighboring Asian giants, have had a turbulent history marked by significant highs and lows. However, recent diplomatic gestures from both sides, including a series of high-level meetings and proactive diplomacy, indicate a positive shift in their bilateral relations. These efforts are aimed at improving ties and creating a more stable foundation for future cooperation.
The visit of Japanese Foreign Minister Takeo Iwaya in December 2024 to Beijing was a significant event, marked by a warm welcome that signaled a thawing in relations between the two nations. During his visit, Foreign Minister Iwaya met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi as well as with Premier Li Qiang. In addition, Iwaya attended the second meeting of the China-Japan High-level People-to-People and Cultural Exchanges Consultation Mechanism, alongside Wang, further reinforcing the commitment to improving bilateral ties.
Iwaya’s visit followed a key meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru in November 2024. This high-level encounter served as another indication of both countries’ willingness to move forward.
In a recent television interview, Prime Minister Ishiba underscored the importance of stronger China-Japan relations. “It is extremely important for the Japanese prime minister to visit China. The trust relationship between leaders should not only stay on the surface but must be accumulated through frequent exchanges,” he stated. He also emphasized that the relationship must remain stable, noting, “After all, we are neighbors. We will establish a trust relationship and explore each other’s interests.” However, Ishiba also highlighted the importance of maintaining Japan’s relationship with the United States, signaling a balancing act in Japan’s foreign policy.
Looking ahead to 2025, there is growing optimism about the future of China-Japan relations. Ishiba’s statements reflect the need for a strategic upgrade of bilateral ties, a view that is widely shared in Japan. Reports from Japanese media suggest that Ishiba is eager to visit Beijing, and such a visit would represent a milestone in the ongoing improvement of diplomatic relations between the two nations.
This shift is particularly significant when viewed in the context of the current global political environment, especially after Donald Trump’s second victory in the U.S. presidency. Ishiba’s priority on visiting Beijing, rather than traveling to the U.S., as his predecessors did, marks a major departure from the past. Late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for instance, attended the U.S. presidential inauguration, whereas Ishiba seems to be signaling a new direction in Japan’s diplomatic strategy.
The anticipated visit of Ishiba to China in early 2025 could mark the beginning of a new chapter in China-Japan relations. Both nations are poised to benefit from closer cooperation, especially in the realms of economic, political and cultural engagement. A stronger China-Japan relationship will not only bolster bilateral ties but also contribute to the stabilization of power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.
As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang recently stated, “When China-Japan relations are stable, Asia will be more stable; when Asia is stable, it can play a more important role in the world.” The boosting of relations between China and Japan could lead to more high-profile visits and significant developments in various sectors, including trade, tourism and regional security.
For both countries, the diplomatic posture holds promising potential. Japan, which has become a premier destination for tourists from across Asia, stands to gain significantly from increased Chinese tourism. The influx of Chinese visitors has already contributed substantially to Japan’s economy, and further visa liberalization measures – such as the extension of stay periods for Chinese tourists – could amplify this economic benefit.
China has also taken steps toward enhancing travel opportunities, with its unilateral expansion of visa-free travel, which now also includes Japan. In response, Japan introduced 10-year tourist visas for Chinese citizens and extended the duration of group travel visas from 15 to 30 days. These moves reflect a growing mutual desire to strengthen people-to-people exchanges and foster closer ties between the two countries.
If Ishiba’s visit to Beijing materializes as expected, it could serve as a major breakthrough in multiple areas of cooperation, marking the beginning of a new, more harmonious phase in China-Japan relations. The diplomatic gestures between the two nations holds great promise not only for their bilateral relationship but also for the stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.